Two players take turns rolling a fair die. Player A wins if he rolls a 6, Player B wins if he rolls a 5 or 6. If A starts, find the probability that A wins.

Answer: The probability that A wins is 38\frac{3}{8}.

Step-by-step solution

Step 1: Define probabilities for each player

First, we determine the probability of each player winning on their turn. Player A wins if they roll a 6, so the probability is 1/61/6. Player B wins if they roll a 5 or a 6, so the probability is 2/6=1/32/6 = 1/3.

Step 2: Define probabilities of not winning

Next, we calculate the probability that each player does not win on their turn. For Player A, this is 1−1/6=5/61 - 1/6 = 5/6. For Player B, this is 1−1/3=2/31 - 1/3 = 2/3. These probabilities are crucial for considering turns where neither player wins.

Step 3: Formulate the probability of A winning

Player A can win on their first turn, or on their second turn (if both A and B fail on their first turns), or on their third turn (if both A and B fail on their first two turns), and so on. This forms an infinite geometric series.

Step 4: Write the geometric series

Substituting the probabilities, the series becomes 1/6+(5/6)(2/3)(1/6)+(5/6)(2/3)(5/6)(2/3)(1/6)+…1/6 + (5/6)(2/3)(1/6) + (5/6)(2/3)(5/6)(2/3)(1/6) + \dots. This is a geometric series with first term a=1/6a = 1/6 and common ratio r=(5/6)(2/3)r = (5/6)(2/3).

Step 5: Calculate the common ratio

The common ratio rr is the probability that neither player wins in a round (A's turn then B's turn). This is calculated as P(Anot win)×P(Bnot win)=(5/6)×(2/3)=10/18=5/9P(A_{\text{not win}}) \times P(B_{\text{not win}}) = (5/6) \times (2/3) = 10/18 = 5/9.

Step 6: Apply the sum of an infinite geometric series formula

For an infinite geometric series with ∣r∣<1|r| < 1, the sum is given by S=a/(1−r)S = a / (1-r). Here, a=1/6a = 1/6 and r=5/9r = 5/9.

Step 7: Calculate the final probability

Substitute the values into the formula: P(Awins)=(1/6)/(1−5/9)=(1/6)/(4/9)P(A_{\text{wins}}) = (1/6) / (1 - 5/9) = (1/6) / (4/9). This simplifies to (1/6)×(9/4)=9/24=3/8(1/6) \times (9/4) = 9/24 = 3/8.

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